BIO Sensing of Finland Δ 13th of January 2014 Ω 5:11 AM

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«BIO Sensing	Θ	Θ
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~ Plant Stress Group

»Plant Stress Group
ξ work combines plant physiology with genetics and molecular biology
ξ concentrates on finding out how plants sense and transmit stress signals at the cellular level
ξ main focus is the role of reactive oxygen species and plant hormones during abiotic stress
ξ in addition to stress responses, also study developmental phenomena, mainly related to the plant hormone ethylene

Professor Jaakkko Kangasjärvi
Dr. Mikael Brosché
Dr. Hannes Kollist

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~ Biofuels & Alternative Fuels by VTT

»Biofuels & Alternative Fuels by VTT

Abstract
ξ time period covered extends up to 2030
ξ IEA & DOE: the world energy demand will increase by over 50% from now to 2030, if policies remain unchanged
ξ gasoline and diesel projected to remain the dominant automotive fuels until 2030
ξ the problem with CO2 remains
ξ Hybrid technology is one option to reduce fuel consumption
ξ Diesel engines are fuel efficient, but have high emissions compared with advanced gasoline engines
ξ new combustion systems combining the best qualities of gasoline and diesel engines promise low emissions as well as high efficiency

ξ by 2030, alternative fuels could represent a 10.30% share of transport fuels, depending on policies
ξ traditional biofuels will also be used in 2030
ξ Ethanol is the fastest growing biofuel
ξ Synthetic fuels promise excellent end-use properties, reduced emissions, and if produced from biomass, also reduced CO2 emissions
ξ In the short term, energy savings will be the main measure for CO2 reductions in transport, fuel switches will have a secondary role

ξ Nils-Olof Nylund, D.Tech, Principal of TEC TransEnergy Consulting Ltd
ξ Kai Sipilä Research Director, VTT

Introduction

ξ global energy solutions in general are unsustainable
ξ the situation is the worst in the transport sector
ξ energy demand in transportation is growing
ξ a gap between supply and demand of transportation fuels can be foreseen

ξ limitations on energy sources, production processes, and infrastructure determine the availability of energy carriers (fuels)
ξ we may see a variety of solutions . vehicles running on CNG or LPG, on ethanol or conventional bio-diesel, or on synthetic liquid fuels (based on natural gas, coal and biomass), and
ξ on oil-based fuels (the last drop of fossil fuels will be used in transportation.)

ξ biofuels are analyzed mainly from the end-use perspective !
ξ no detailed analysis of the production potential, global logistics, and raw material availability are included !
ξ only very recently there was considerable excitement about biofuels
ξ Now a backlash can be seen, with increasing concerns about the sustainability of producing large amounts of conventional biofuels
ξ i.e., ethanol and biodiesel from edible oil
ξ hydrogen and fuel cells have lost some of their enchantment !

IEA predictions
ξ the world energy demand will increase by more than 55% between 2005 and 2030 with current policies
ξ huge investments will be needed to meet this increase
ξ transport is the largest energy end-use sector, and today it.s nearly 100% dependent on oil
ξ fossil fuels are expected to remain the major energy sources for many decades to come !
ξ even the most optimistic projections call for urgent actions towards sustainable energy
ξ Oil demand is projected to grow from some 85 mbpd currently to some 120 mbpd by 2030
ξ Oil resources are mainly concentrated in the Middle East
ξ large importers are increasingly dependent on oil from the Middle East and North Africa
ξ Natural gas resources are more evenly distributed
ξ utilization of remote natural gas sources means increases in both LNG shipping and fuel prices
ξ coal and nuclear energy may increase within the power sector despite of problems related to both of these energy sources
ξ renewable energy, mainly biomass, expected to account for 14% of total energy in 2030
ξ biofuels could cover 4.7% of world transport fuel demand
ξ Power and heat production is the most efficient end-use sector for biomass
ξ biofuels may cover up to even 25.30% of transport fuels in some regions by 2030
ξ global energy demand is now some 467 EJ/a
ξ the maximum bioenergy potential is estimated at some 200.400 EJ/a during this century

Reserves and projections for supply
ξ the price of energy will go up
ξ Fossil fuels . oil, natural gas and coal are expected to remain the major energy sources for many decades
ξ the share of oil drops, though oil remains the largest single fuel in the global energy mix in 2030

Oil
ξ 2007 world consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels grows from 83 million barrels oil equivalent per day (mbpd) in 2004 to 118 million in 2030
ξ OPEC producers are expected to provide more than two thirds of the additional production in 2030
ξ Oil resources are strongly concentrated in the Middle East
ξ IEA countries and large importers like China and India will be increasingly dependent on oil from the Middle East and also North Africa
ξ Non-OPEC oil production starts to decline slowly, but this is partly compensated by increase in unconventional resources
ξ the reserves of unconventional oil, e.g., extra-heavy oil, bitumen, and oil shale, are high
ξ most of these reserves cannot be recovered economically due to the huge investments required
ξ in Canada has the biggest oil sand resources

Biomass

ξ In principle, the amount of energy adsorbed in biomass is huge
ξ only a part of the biomass reserves can be used for energy
ξ not all biomass is technically feasible
ξ there are competitive usages
ξ major development steps are needed for clean and efficient harvesting and efficient conversion processes
ξ from the industrial investors point of view the techno-economical potential is typically ca 10-30% of the scientific raw material potential
ξ 30% of world energy demand could be covered by biomass by 2030, and if desired, major part of the transport energy
ξ bioenergy could provide 25% of world energy needs over the next 15 to 20 years. (UN-Energy 2007)
ξ 14 million hectares, 1% of world arable land, are used for biofuel production, could be to 2.5.3.8% by 2030

U.S.
ξ the biomass potential for 2050 is estimated to be around 1.4 billion dry tons per year
ξ 73% would come from agricultural lands and rest from forestlands
ξ biomass would to be sufficient to cover 30% or more of the petroleum consumption in the U.S.

EU
ξ biofuels could account for 25% of transport fuel by 2030
ξ environmentally-compatible indigenous biomass potential could cover as much as 27.48% of the road transport fuel needs in the case that all biomass is dedicated to biofuels production
ξ biomass potential represents 15.16% of the projected energy demand of the EU-25 in 2030

Palm Oil
ξ the use of palm oil for renewable electricity and biofuels is increasing rapidly
ξ enormous quantities of additional production and plantations needed

Jatropha curcas
ξ grows well in marginal and poor soils, and even in the crevices of rocks
ξ grows relatively quickly and produces seeds for some 50 years
ξ is suitable for preventing soil erosion and shifting of sand dunes
ξ is toxic with the exception of a non-toxic Mexican variety
ξ China plans to devote 13 million hectares (the size of England) to Jatropha trees, producing some 6 million tons of biodiesel yearly and fuel for a 12 MW power plant by 2010
ξ Currently, 2 million hectares is devoted to Jatropha in China
ξ Jatropha is already planted in India, the Philippines, Thailand, and African countries

Algae
ξ contain lipid oils, which can be used to produce biofuels
ξ production yield of some 4.5 million liters of oil per hectare yearly, which is about 100 times more than for e.g., soybean
ξ costs around 50 cents per gallon in the demonstration plant in the Netherlands
ξ costs depend on many factors, e.g. climatic conditions (www.algaelink.com)
ξ a number of algae-to-biodiesel projects are going on, but research of utilization is still in the starting phase
ξ many statements on algae are, to some extent, are in conflict with each other
ξ the production is not economically feasible for biomass production alone
ξ costs of infrastructure, harvesting, and drying are high
ξ there are also contamination problems
ξ the future carbon sequestration requirements can support economy for algae production (captured CO2 is fed to algae)

Energy demand
ξ will increase some 55% between 2005 and 2030
ξ two thirds of the increase in energy demand is expected to take place in developing countries, mostly in China and India
ξ developing countries would consume more than half of the global energy in 2030, whereas today's share is 41%

China
ξ the energy demand is projected to about double from 2004 to 2030
ξ is expected to take the place of US as the biggest energy consumer
ξ is rich in coal reserves and increasingly uses coal as an energy source
ξ is catching the US as the world's biggest contributor to GHG emissions
ξ it's growing CO2 emissions could even nullify achievements of climate agreements over the next 20 years
ξ a hydrogen society could be built up in China, if technology and economy for that would be feasible

Energy pool
ξ until 2030 fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal), with a share of around 80%, will dominate world energy consumption
ξ Oil's share of world energy is projected to decrease to 32%, but the demand in absolute terms will grow
ξ the highest increase in absolute terms is projected for coal, originating mainly from growth of power-sector in China and India
ξ hydropower's share of primary energy use rises slightly
ξ nuclear power falls
ξ the share of biomass falls marginally, as developing countries increasingly switch to using modern commercial energy,
ξ offsetting the growing use of biomass as feedstock for biofuels production and for power and heat generation
ξ non-hydro renewables, including wind, solar and geothermal, grow quickest, but from a small base

U.S.
ξ renewables represented 6% of energy in US in 2005, and almost half of this was biomass
ξ wood, wood waste, and black liquor from pulp mills were the largest biomass sources
ξ waste (municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, tires, agricultural byproducts) accounts for about 20% of total biomass consumption in US

Biofuels in transport
ξ the share of biofuels in transport on a world basis was 1% in 2004
ξ this share to grow to 4% in 2030, and to 7% in the alternative policy scenario
ξ Europe has set a preliminary target of 20% alternative fuels in transport in 2020

Policy
ξ driving forces behind alternative fuels have shifted from energy security and air pollution
ξ towards climate change, and again, now moving towards energy security
ξ energy savings is one of the key elements in coping with sufficiency of energy and to reduce greenhouse gases
ξ IEA predicts that energy-related CO2 emissions will almost double between 2004 and 2030, if no actions are taken
ξ the Kyoto Protocol and other agreements and policies have been put in place to mitigate climate change

Bioenergy
ξ is one option to reduce greenhouse gases
ξ considerations of biofuels are calling for sustainable policies, taking into account, e.g.,
ξ competition with food production,
ξ threat to rain forests, and
ξ impact on social issues
ξ the next generation biofuels might provide a sustainable solution, if processed from lingo-cellulosic crops grown in poor soils without chemicals or processed from waste materials
ξ reduction of GHG emissions with CO2 capturing and storage (CCS) is suitable for large stationary sources, but not for transport applications.
ξ new energy policies e.g. in the US, Europe and Japan encourage energy efficiency, conservation, alternative and renewable energy sources
ξ improving fuel efficiency of vehicles has a greater potential for CO2 reductions than biofuels
ξ traditional biofuels might not be helpful in combating local pollution, whereas next generation biofuels can provide advantages for both CO2 and local pollution
ξ in the short-term, only traditional biofuels are available
ξ production of these in large-scale present a risk to food supplies, food prices, the environment and biodiversity

Road transportation
ξ is by far the biggest consumer of energy in the transport sector, with a share of around 85% in developed countries
ξ there are about 900 million road vehicles today,
ξ by 2030 possibly over 2 billion
ξ CO2 emissions from road transport are increasing with increasing energy consumption
ξ regulated emissions have been dramatically reduced in markets such as the US, Europe and Japan
ξ only industrialized countries can afford low-emission, modern transportation technologies
ξ increased mobility in developing countries will pose serious environmental problems
ξ vehicle efficiency is one of the focal points among IEA's tasks

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